Mahere Questions US$3bn Surplus Claims As Zimbabweans Face El Niño Austerity

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By Advent Shoko | ZiGoats | News Article

Former opposition legislator for Mr Pleasant advocate Fadzayi Mahere has challenged the Government to explain why Zimbabweans are being urged to tighten their belts ahead of an anticipated drought when Finance Minister Mthuli Ncube is projecting a record US$3 billion current account surplus.

The debate has exposed growing questions over whether Zimbabwe’s reported macroeconomic improvements are translating into better living conditions, stronger public services and adequate food security for ordinary citizens.

Mahere’s criticism follows Ncube’s announcement that Zimbabwe expects to record a current account surplus of more than US$3 billion by December 2026.

Speaking during a virtual press conference at the IMF and World Bank Annual Meetings which took place between 12 and 18 October 2026 in Bangkok, Thailand, Ncube said the country’s improving external position was strengthening the banking sector and creating room for larger loans to businesses.

“Come December 2026, we should be able to record a current account surplus of over US$3 billion, this is a record,” Ncube said.

He added that the Government was also working to build a financial buffer to help the country withstand the anticipated El Niño shock next year.

However, the announcement has drawn criticism from Mahere, who questioned the apparent contradiction between the Government’s positive economic projections and warnings about possible food shortages.

In a strongly worded response, she accused Government officials of issuing contradictory messages while ordinary Zimbabweans were being asked to make sacrifices.

“But the same regime is telling us to eat porridge because El Niño is coming. They cannot even fund grain reserves to feed the population. Hospitals don’t even have paracetamol or bed sheets,” Mahere said.

She further criticised public spending priorities, alleging that resources were being wasted on luxury vehicles for political elites, corruption and enriching politically connected individuals.

“The economy is broken and the little money that the fiscus does make is wasted on luxury cars for political elites, looting and making rich fat cats richer and fatter. Either you’re lying or you’re lying.

“We need new leaders.🇿🇼”

The ‘Eat Porridge ‘ Controversy

At the centre of the controversy is advice attributed to National Assembly Speaker advocate Jacob Mudenda, who recently urged Zimbabweans to reduce their consumption of sadza and switch to porridge to conserve maize meal ahead of the anticipated drought.

Speaking at a pre-budget seminar in Bulawayo, Mudenda recalled how households adjusted their eating habits during the 1957 drought, including reducing meals from three a day to two.

He suggested that similar adjustments could help households prepare for possible food shortages.

The remarks have attracted criticism, with Mahere questioning why ordinary citizens should be expected to change their diets when the Government has a responsibility to prepare adequate food reserves.

Her criticism also touches on a wider debate about public spending priorities, particularly whether enough resources are being directed towards essential services and social protection.

What The Government Says About Drought Preparedness

Zimbabwe is preparing for the 2026/2027 agricultural season amid forecasts of below-normal rainfall associated with a potentially strong El Niño.

Government has acknowledged the risks and approved a six-pillar drought response plan covering strategic grain reserves, climate-smart agriculture, agricultural financing, livestock protection, food imports and early-warning systems.

However, its own projections highlight the scale of the challenge.

According to the October 21 Cabinet briefing, Zimbabwe expects to produce approximately 1.61 million tonnes of cereals against national requirements of 2.27 million tonnes.

This leaves a projected deficit of about 663,188 tonnes.

Government says it intends to build a strategic grain reserve of 600,000 tonnes by October 2027, while allowing continued grain imports to cover commercial requirements and potential shortages. herald +1

The figures provide important context to Mahere’s argument: despite the Government’s economic optimism, the country still faces significant food-security challenges.

Zimbabweans Question The Meaning Of The Surplus

Mahere is not the only person questioning what the projected economic gains mean for ordinary citizens.

Another commentator responding to Ncube’s announcement challenged Treasury over the apparent disconnect between the reported surplus and the country’s public service and household challenges.

“Honourable Minister this is not good on your ministry how can you talk of us3 billion surplus yet you are can’t fund hospitals to buy medicines,you can’t pay pay civil servants living wages,fuel is expensive in Zim what kind of surplus are talking wen citizens are living in povat,” the commentator said.

The reaction reflects a recurring concern among Zimbabweans: whether improvements in headline economic indicators are translating into affordable living costs, better healthcare, adequate public sector funding and improved household incomes.

What Does A US$3bn Current Account Surplus Actually y Mean?

An important distinction in this debate is that a current account surplus is not the same as a Government budget surplus.

A current account surplus means a country receives more foreign currency through exports, services, investment income and transfers than it spends on corresponding international transactions.

It can strengthen foreign currency availability, support the banking sector and improve the country’s ability to withstand external shocks. However, it does not mean Treasury has US$3 billion sitting in its account to spend on hospitals, salaries or food imports.

Ncube has separately indicated that Government expects to end 2026 with a positive primary fiscal balance, although debt obligations still need to be serviced.

The distinction is important because the projected external surplus cannot, on its own, answer questions about whether public institutions are adequately funded.

There are also concerns about the distribution of available public resources. In its July 2026 assessment, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) reported that Zimbabwe had missed an indicative target on protected social and priority spending, despite meeting its main quantitative programme targets. The Fund urged authorities to protect social spending and improve support for vulnerable groups. Zimbabwe Situation +1

The Bigger Question Facing Government

Ultimately, the controversy goes beyond competing economic statistics.

Zimbabwe needs foreign currency reserves, macroeconomic stability and a stronger banking sector. These are important foundations for economic recovery.

But citizens also expect economic progress to translate into tangible improvements in their daily lives.

With another potentially difficult agricultural season approaching, the Government faces pressure to demonstrate that its economic gains can support food security, adequately funded hospitals, better public services and protection for vulnerable households.

For Mahere, the central issue is one of credibility and priorities. She is arguing that if the economy is performing as strongly as officials suggest, why are ordinary citizens being asked to make further sacrifices?

That question is likely to remain central to the debate as Zimbabwe approaches the 2027 national budget and prepares for the potential effects of El Niño.

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