RBZ Claims Stability in 2025, But Forex Liabilities Expose Fragile Gains

By Advent Shoko

The Reserve Bank of Zimbabwe (RBZ) has rolled out a confident 2025 snapshot, declaring inflation under control, exchange rate stability sustained, money supply restrained and foreign reserves growing. On the surface, it reads like a long-awaited turnaround story.

And to be fair, some progress is real.

Inflation ending 2025 at 15 percent, month-on-month averaging 0.4 percent, and a calmer ZiG exchange rate hovering around ZiG26/US$ mark a sharp contrast to Zimbabwe’s recent monetary chaos. The narrowing gap between official and parallel market rates, once above 140 percent, now around 20 percent, has reduced price distortions and eased daily transactions.

But stability in Zimbabwe is never just about what is said. It is about what sits underneath.

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Local economist Baba Nyenyedzi points to the most important, and least advertised, shift:

RBZ has reduced its foreign liabilities from US$3.5 billion to US$2.5 billion by November 2025. That US$1 billion reduction matters more than glossy dashboards. It signals real effort to clean up the central bank’s balance sheet.

Yet Nyenyedzi is blunt: this remains RBZ’s Achilles heel.

Why? Because despite improved reserves of US$1.2 billion, Zimbabwe’s forex system is still fragile. A central bank carrying heavy foreign liabilities is vulnerable to shocks, speculation and confidence loss. In plain terms, stability today rests on careful management, not deep structural strength.

More worrying is what Baba Nyenyedzi flags next: accounting rule changes triggered by the introduction of ZiG. These changes affect how foreign currency liabilities are classified and reported. Until RBZ fully explains this shift, markets will keep asking hard questions about transparency and true exposure.

Ordinarily, RBZ should hold a positive Net Foreign Assets (NFA) position. That is the gold standard for a credible central bank. Zimbabwe is not there yet.

So yes, RBZ has tightened money supply, cooled inflation and steadied the exchange rate. But this is fragile stability, not victory. One policy misstep, one fiscal shock, or one confidence wobble, and the gains could unwind fast.

The next monetary policy statement will matter more than this celebratory snapshot. Zimbabwe does not just need stability. It needs clarity, clean accounting and a stronger balance sheet to make stability stick.