By Advent Shoko
HARARE – Zimbabwe and China have reached a new economic milestone, with bilateral trade hitting a record US$4.39 billion in 2025, according to the Chinese Embassy in Zimbabwe. This marks a 14.7 percent year-on-year increase, the highest since both countries formalised trade relations.
Underlining growing commercial ties, China’s imports from Zimbabwe rose 4.1 percent to US$2.56 billion, while exports to Zimbabwe surged 33.7 percent to US$1.84 billion. For the first time in recent memory, Zimbabwe recorded a trade surplus of US$720 million with its largest trading partner, a rare and politically significant achievement for Harare’s export-led strategy.
What’s Driving the Zimbabwe-China Trade Boom?
According to the embassy statement:
Tobacco remained China’s largest import from Zimbabwe, hitting a record US$790 million, accounting for 31 percent of total Zimbabwean exports to China.
China imported 5,250 tons of macadamia nuts from Zimbabwe worth US$11.62 million, a sign that value-added agricultural exports are gaining traction.
Crucially, export protocols for Zimbabwean avocado and blueberry to China were finalised, with first shipments slated for 2026, opening high-value horticultural corridors.
China’s appetite for Zimbabwe’s raw materials and agricultural output has been a constant since Beijing became a strategic partner in the early 2000s, but this year’s numbers point to deepening diversification beyond minerals and tobacco.
The Long Road: Zimbabwe–China Trade History
Trade between Zimbabwe and China began expanding rapidly after the 2008 global financial crisis, when China pivoted to African markets with infrastructure, mining, and agriculture deals. The partnership strengthened further after Western sanctions intensified in the early 2000s, pushing Zimbabwe to seek alternative commercial allies.
Over the past two decades, China has become Zimbabwe’s largest source of imports, including machinery, electronics and consumer goods, and a top destination for exports such as tobacco, minerals (including lithium and chrome), and agricultural products. Zimbabwe’s Indigenisation and Economic Empowerment Act was amended in 2018 to encourage foreign participation, a move that reassured many Chinese investors and boosted trade flows.
What’s New in 2025?
The latest data points to three key trends powerfully shaping the trade landscape:
1. Faster Growth in Chinese Exports:
China’s exports to Zimbabwe grew nearly eight times faster than its imports from Zimbabwe (33.7% vs 4.1%), highlighting increased demand for Chinese manufactured goods across Zimbabwean sectors, especially construction, telecommunications, and consumer products.
2. Diversification Beyond Tobacco:
While tobacco remains dominant, agricultural diversification is underway. The upcoming avocado and blueberry exports to China signal Zimbabwe’s entry into lucrative horticultural markets, often reserved for more advanced exporters.
3. Surplus Signals Export Momentum:
Zimbabwe’s trade surplus is unusual for a developing economy heavily reliant on imports. This shift reflects stronger export performance, particularly in sectors where Zimbabwe has competitive advantages.
Praise and Criticism: Balancing the Narrative
While business leaders are celebrating the record trade figures with China, critics argue the milestone hides stubborn structural cracks, Zimbabwe still leans heavily on raw commodity exports, leaving earnings exposed to global price swings, while imports from China are dominated by finished manufactured goods that do little to build local industry. Analysts also warn that relying so heavily on one major partner increases geopolitical and economic vulnerability if Chinese demand slows. Even under the Belt and Road Initiative, which improved infrastructure and trade links, the export basket remains narrow, raising tough questions about real transformation versus surface-level growth.
What This Means for Zimbabwe’s Economy
Zimbabwe’s deepening trade boom with China is more than headline numbers, it’s a potential lifeline for foreign currency reserves, offering support to exchange rate stability and critical imports, while export growth in mining and high-value crops like avocados and blueberries could unlock rural jobs and fresh investment into agricultural value chains. But the real test lies in whether Zimbabwe can turn raw exports into industrial muscle through local value addition and beneficiation. Economists warn that sustaining momentum will demand better logistics, stricter quality standards, wider market access beyond China, and stronger SME participation, otherwise the surge risks remaining a missed transformation opportunity.
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