By Advent Shoko
Zimbabwe’s economy is showing signs of recovery, stability and growth, according to a recent report by the International Monetary Fund (IMF). An IMF delegation visited the country to discuss ongoing economic policies, during which a staff‑level agreement on another 10‑month Staff-Monitored Program (SMP) was reached. The SMP is premised on helping solidify the gains Zimbabwe has made in stabilising its economy and strengthening macroeconomic management after years of volatility.
The program focuses on prudent budget execution, improved cash and expenditure controls, sustained monetary discipline, and governance reforms to enhance transparency and manage fiscal risks. It forms part of Zimbabwe’s broader strategy to build a credible reform track record, re‑engage with international partners, clear arrears, and prepare for debt restructuring. The IMF report states:
“Zimbabwe’s economic recovery continues, supported by tight monetary policy, improving fiscal discipline, and favorable external conditions. Growth strengthened in 2025, surpassing the initial projection of 6.6 percent with solid performances in agriculture and mining, boosted by high gold prices and recovering platinum and lithium output. Inflation fell to 4.1 percent in January 2026, aided by exchange rate stability and tight monetary conditions. Fiscal revenues also strengthened in 2025, supported by improved tax administration and new measures, narrowing the deficit and producing a small primary surplus.”
Looking ahead, the IMF projects growth in 2026 at around 5 percent, with continued strength in agriculture and mining. Inflation is expected to remain in single digits, while the current account may stay in surplus at roughly 3.8 percent of GDP. The primary fiscal balance is also projected to register a modest surplus of about half a percent of GDP. The report further highlights reforms aimed at enhancing cash planning, public financial management, foreign exchange market functioning, and governance through improved transparency in state-owned enterprises such as the Mutapa Investment Fund. Social protection initiatives, including the full operationalisation of the Zimbabwe Social Registry (ZISO), are also emphasised to ensure aid reaches households most in need.
Zimbabwe’s 2025 Economic Recovery Questioned Despite IMF Endorsement
While the IMF echoes the government’s report of Zimbabwe’s economic recovery trajectory that started sometime in 2025, questions remain about how this “stability” translates into everyday life. Opposition figure Fadzayi Mahere disputes the government’s claims of economic stability and by extension that of the IMF, arguing that the reported progress is largely fictitious and disconnected from the lived reality of ordinary Zimbabweans, many of whom continue to grapple with rising living costs and precarious employment. She clashed with economics professor Gift Mugano, who supports the government’s position, insisting that the IMF and state reports accurately reflect broader trends in fiscal consolidation, macroeconomic management, and growth in agriculture and mining.
Mahere’s criticism almost mirrors that of former Finance Minister Tendai Biti, who in 2021 dismissed IMF reports recognising Zimbabwe’s economic progress. Biti argued that these assessments relied on assumptions rather than on-the-ground realities, accusing the international body of aligning with government narratives. Biti said back then:
“It reminds me of the IMF reports of 2014-2016 by a former IMF chief which sounded like they had been authored at the ZANU PF head office.
It looks like we are back to the same level of naivety. I do not think Ghura was ever in Zimbabwe. They conducted Zoom interviews with Zimbabwean officials with locals carefully selected by local officials to aid the dishonesty.
This is typical of decades of the IMF interventions on the African continent which has been consistent with siding with autocrats, with an undemocratic agenda.”
At that time, ZANU PF and other economists, including Persistence Gwanyanya, maintained that IMF projections were consistent with observable developments such as improved fiscal discipline, tighter monetary control, and successful social programmes.
It remains to be seen whether the reported stability will meaningfully translate into ordinary Zimbabweans’ lives. While challenges like arrears clearance, equitable wealth distribution, and broader social welfare persist, the current IMF findings and government measures suggest cautious optimism, macroeconomic frameworks are consolidating, policy credibility is improving, and the foundations for long-term stability and growth appear steadily strengthening.
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