By Advent Shoko
Cyclone Gezani has delivered a powerful blow to eastern Madagascar, causing devastating loss of life and widespread destruction, and now poses an ongoing threat to southern Mozambique and the broader Southern African Development Community (SADC) region.
The storm made landfall on 10 February 2026 near the port city of Toamasina with sustained winds reported over 195 km/h (around 121 mph), leaving at least 31 people dead, dozens injured and thousands displaced amid collapsed homes, flooding and power outages. Authorities warned of further flooding and landslides as the system crossed the island.
Madagascar’s vulnerability to cyclones is nothing new, the island frequently endures tropical systems during the November–March season. Just weeks earlier, Cyclone Fytia struck parts of Madagascar, killing at least 14 people and displacing tens of thousands.
What’s Next: Mozambique & the SADC Outlook
As Gezani moves into the Mozambique Channel, weather services confirm the potential for restrengthening over warm ocean waters. If this occurs, southern Mozambique, particularly the Sofala, Gaza and Inhambane provinces, could face heavy rains, strong winds and flooding later this week, compounding earlier flood impacts that have already affected hundreds of thousands of people.
Oxfam has warned of “a disaster upon disaster,” noting existing humanitarian needs from prolonged rainfall and flooding across central and southern Mozambique.
In Zambia, meteorological authorities are monitoring increased rainfall driven by Gezani’s interaction with the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ). Forecasters caution that heavy rainfall, flooding in low-lying areas, waterlogging and thunderstorms with lightning may occur, urging residents to prepare and exercise caution.
In South Africa, the South African Weather Service (SAWS) has confirmed there is currently no direct threat from the storm, but rough seas and hazardous marine conditions are expected in the southwest Indian Ocean and Mozambique Channel.
Regional Memory: Climate Risk in SADC
The SADC region has recently faced severe weather challenges. In January 2026, torrential rains and flooding across South Africa, Mozambique and Zimbabwe claimed more than 100 lives and affected over 200,000 people, highlighting the vulnerability of the region to extreme rainfall patterns.
Mozambique, in particular, has suffered from past cyclone events such as Cyclone Chido in 2024, which caused widespread flooding, destroyed homes and claimed dozens of lives, illustrating the recurring threat tropical weather systems pose to southern Africa’s coastal communities and infrastructure.
Preparedness and Public Safety
Weather experts emphasise preparedness: communities in low-lying areas should avoid crossing flooded roads, secure loose property, and stay informed through official national meteorological updates. Governments and disaster agencies in SADC are expected to continue mobilising resources to support at-risk populations as the system evolves.
Leave a Reply